The current state-of-the-art climate models suggest that the human-induced weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has already begun since the mid-1980s. However, continuous direct observational records during the past two decades have shown no clear sign of a slowing down of the AMOC. To shed light on this apparent contradiction, a new study published in Nature Communications attributed the interdecadal variation of the historical AMOC to human-induced and natural signals. The study reported that an extensive weakening of the AMOC occurred in the 2000s largely due to human-induced forcing. However, since the early 2010s, the natural component of the AMOC has greatly strengthened due to the development of a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The enhanced natural AMOC signal in turn acted to oppose the human-induced weakening signal, leading to a near stalling of the AMOC weakening. Interdecadal variations in the NAO are more likely generated by atmospheric internal dynamics and, thus random and unpredictable. As such, the tug-of-war between the natural and human-induced signals may continue in the next several years, or the NAO phase may reverse in the next decades reinforcing the human-induced weakening of the AMOC.
Lee, S.-K., Kim, D., Gomez, F.A., Lopez, H., Volkov, D.L., Dong, S., Lumpkin, R. & Yeager, S. A pause in the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since the early 2010s. Nat Commun 15, 10642 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54903-w
Ocean to Climate 
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