There are many siblings, cousins, and distant relatives of El Niño spanning the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans who share a feature in common: ocean surface temperature anomalies along eastern boundaries linked to changes in the upwelling of cooler water from below. So far, climate scientists have identified a total of 14 members of this... Continue Reading →
The Larsen ice shelves extend along the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula over the northwest part of the Weddell Sea. From north to south, these segments are called the Larsen A, B, C, and D, bordered by Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf south of the Weddell Sea. In 1995, the Larsen A ice shelf completely disintegrated,... Continue Reading →
Antarctic sea-ice has expanded over the period of continuous satellite monitoring, which seemingly contradicts ongoing global warming resulting from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. A variety of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion and corresponding model–observation discrepancy, but the issue remains unresolved. In a new study published in Nature Climate... Continue Reading →
Previous studies based on the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have suggested an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events in the 21st Century in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Several studies have attributed these shifts in El Niño frequency and amplitude to the projected changes in the... Continue Reading →
This is a guest blog by Robert West. Robert is a postdoctoral research associate in the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI) at the Mississippi State University and is also affiliated with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Differences in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans are known to influence atmospheric... Continue Reading →
This new study accepted in Monthly Weather Review (Lee et al., 2021) presents an experimental model for Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes (SPOTter) in the contiguous U.S. for March, April and May, and evaluates its forecast skill. This forecast model uses the leading empirical orthogonal function modes of regional variability in tornadic environmental parameters (i.e.,... Continue Reading →
A decade-long increase of the basin-wide sea level and heat content in the subtropical southern Indian Ocean (SIO) during 2004–2013 ended abruptly, immediately following the onset of the strong 2014–2016 El Niño. Interestingly, this unprecedented drop of the SIO heat quickly recovered during the weak 2017–2018 La Niña. A study recently published in Science Advances... Continue Reading →
In a new study published in Nature Climate Change, Clem and colleagues reported that the South Pole has experienced a record-high warming of 1.81 ± 1.02°C during the last 30 years, three times larger than the global average. They used observational records to show that the recent warming of the South Pole, which started around 2000 following... Continue Reading →
In the U.S., peak summer (June-July) rainfall variability, especially east of the Rockies, is largely linked to North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and associated variations in the Bermuda High. However, these well-established relationships almost completely break down in late summer to mid fall (August-October). Thus, operational seasonal forecast models have generally low skill... Continue Reading →
Under the high emission scenario for the future (RCP 8.5), a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean (i.e., sea-ice extent less than 10-6 km2 for at least five consecutive years) in northern summer is likely before 2050. A decrease in Antarctic sea-ice extent is also expected during the 21st century, but at a slower rate with large uncertainty.... Continue Reading →
Ocean to Climate 