2019 US severe weather season kicked off with deadly tornado outbreak in Alabama and Georgia

2019 US severe weather season started with 39 reported tornadoes throughout southeastern Alabama, Georgia, Florida Panhandle and South Carolina in March 3. At least 20 people have been confirmed dead in Lee County, Alabama alone. On March 2 at 10:51am, NOAA/SPC forecasted an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday, March 3, from southern Alabama... Continue Reading →

Pantropical inter-ocean interactions & the rising influence of tropical Atlantic Ocean

Conventional view so far has been that El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is largely responsible for energizing the dominant modes of SST variability  in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans through changes in the Walker circulation and extratropical atmospheric waves. However, recent studies have shown that SST variability in the tropical Atlantic and Indian... Continue Reading →

Co-variability of salinity, nutrients and coastal currents in the northern Gulf of Mexico and its impact on plankton biomass

The northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is a region strongly influenced by river discharges of freshwater and nutrients, which promote a highly productive coastal ecosystem that host commercially valuable marine species. A new study appeared in Scientific Report utilized a regional ocean-biogeochemical model and observations to show that El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main... Continue Reading →

Recent warming of the Indian Ocean suppresses the Indian summer monsoon circulation

A recent article published in Science Advances analyzed an atmospheric reanalysis dataset (MERRA2) covering the 1980–2016 period to show that a significant warming occurred in the Indian Ocean over the study period, and thus reduced the temperature difference between the Indian subcontinent and Indian Ocean in boreal summer. The reduced land-ocean temperature difference in turn produced anomalous... Continue Reading →

Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by central tropical Pacific SST variability

A new study appeared in Nature Geoscience (Jenkins et al., 2018) analyzed ocean temperature, salinity, dissolved-oxygen and current measurements from 2000 to 2016 near the Dotson Ice Shelf in the Amundsen Sea to determine temporal changes in net basal melting. The study showed that a decadal cycle dominates the ocean record, which is highly correlates with... Continue Reading →

Cross-equatorial winds control El Niño diversity and change

A new study published in Nature Climate Change used idealized coupled model experiments to show that increased cross-equatorial winds in the eastern Pacific during the past decades strengthened the cold tongue (south of the equator). This in turn reduced ENSO amplitude and promoted more central Pacific (CP) - type El Nino events. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0

June 14, 2018 – ENSO Update: El Niño Watch

NOAA CPC's current ENSO alert system status is El Nino Watch: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-watch  

June 2, 2018 – Preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate that the U.S. had a record low number of tornadoes

The spring severe weather season for the U.S. (March - May) is finally over. We had 449 EF0 - EF5 tornadoes from Jan 1 to June 2, which is a record low number for the period and certainly well below the historical average during 2005 - 2015 (792). Recent studies have suggested that U.S. tornado... Continue Reading →

May 24, 2018 – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms,... Continue Reading →

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