Co-variability of Pacific‐Atlantic SST contrast, Caribbean Sea Convection and U.S. summer to fall rainfall variability

In the U.S., peak summer (June-July) rainfall variability, especially east of the Rockies, is largely linked to North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and associated variations in the Bermuda High. However, these well-established relationships almost completely break down in late summer to mid fall (August-October). Thus, operational seasonal forecast models have generally low skill... Continue Reading →

MJO-induced drying air across Central America may be a precursor to active weeks of U.S. tornadoes

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center (NOAA SPC) provides one- to eight-day severe weather forecast for the U.S. that includes tornado watch. To extend the current severe weather forecast beyond eight days to 2 - 4 weeks (i.e., subseasonal time scale), many studies have looked into the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a patch... Continue Reading →

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates North Atlantic atmospheric blocking

Atmospheric blocking over the high-latitude North Atlantic blocks the westerly jet stream, causing the eastward propagation of weather systems to stall for 7 days or so. An earlier study  by Häkkinen et al. (2011) used the 20th century atmospheric reanalysis product of NOAA (20CR) to show that the wintertime blocking frequency over high latitude North Atlantic covaries... Continue Reading →

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones have become increasingly likely to “stall” near the coast

Hurricane Dorian was a powerful storm that reached a maximum sustained wind of 185 mph (Cat 5 ≥ 157 mph) during its landfall over Abaco Islands on September 1, 2019. Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Grand Bahama with about the same intensity and stalled just north of the island for 24 hours, causing massive damages... Continue Reading →

Four types of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main mode of intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans and the major source of subseasonal predictability of precipitation and extreme weather events in many parts of the globe. Although MJO is known as an eastward propagating equatorial atmospheric kelvin wave, not all MJO events are identical in terms of their strength... Continue Reading →

Extreme U.S. Great Plains heat waves are linked to East Asian Monsoon

Heat waves are the leading weather‐related cause of death in the U.S. For example, the most recent U.S. extreme heat waves that occurred over the Great Plains in 2011 and 2012 caused 362 deaths. These events are unusual and largely unpredictable beyond the synoptic time scale. However, their number and severity have increased and are projected... Continue Reading →

Recent intensification of Amazonian flooding extremes is linked to the tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling

The Amazonian River basin hosts the one of the major global deep tropical convective systems, and thus drives the global Hadley and Walker circulations and the global hydrological cycle. Changes in the water cycle and deep convection activity in this region are, however, largely affected by remote oceans, especially the tropical Pacific, via the Walker circulation.... Continue Reading →

Increasing frequency of North American winter extremes caused by the eastward shift of the North Pacific Oscillation

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a dipole oscillation of the sea level pressure (or the atmospheric mass) between the subpolar low and subtropical high over the North Pacific Ocean. A study published in Nature Climate Change showed that the center of the NPO shifted eastward during the recent decades (1995-2014), and thus increased the frequency of... Continue Reading →

Pantropical inter-ocean interactions & the rising influence of tropical Atlantic Ocean

Conventional view so far has been that El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is largely responsible for energizing the dominant modes of SST variability  in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans through changes in the Walker circulation and extratropical atmospheric waves. However, recent studies have shown that SST variability in the tropical Atlantic and Indian... Continue Reading →

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