Why does the upper atmosphere cool with increasing carbon dioxide?

According to model simulations with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the zonal mean temperature in the atmosphere get warmer in the troposphere (< 10km or > 100hPa) and colder in the stratosphere (10 ~ 50km or 100 ~ 1hPa). A simple explanation is that the amount of infrared heat radiated out to the space... Continue Reading →

2019 US severe weather season kicked off with deadly tornado outbreak in Alabama and Georgia

2019 US severe weather season started with 39 reported tornadoes throughout southeastern Alabama, Georgia, Florida Panhandle and South Carolina in March 3. At least 20 people have been confirmed dead in Lee County, Alabama alone. On March 2 at 10:51am, NOAA/SPC forecasted an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday, March 3, from southern Alabama... Continue Reading →

June 14, 2018 – ENSO Update: El Niño Watch

NOAA CPC's current ENSO alert system status is El Nino Watch: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-watch  

June 2, 2018 – Preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate that the U.S. had a record low number of tornadoes

The spring severe weather season for the U.S. (March - May) is finally over. We had 449 EF0 - EF5 tornadoes from Jan 1 to June 2, which is a record low number for the period and certainly well below the historical average during 2005 - 2015 (792). Recent studies have suggested that U.S. tornado... Continue Reading →

May 24, 2018 – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms,... Continue Reading →

Arctic report card: update for 2017

NOAA's Arctic program released Arctic Report Card Update for 2017. The report finds "Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades", "The sea ice cover continues to be relatively young and thin with older, thicker ice comprising only 21% of the ice cover in 2017 compared to 45% in 1985.", and... Continue Reading →

Drought conditions will maintain across a significant portion of the contiguous United States during December 2017

According to the US monthly drought outlook issued by NOAA CPC in November 30, the current severe drought conditions will maintain over the southern US. This is likely due to the developing La Nina condition in the Pacific. During La Niña, the winter atmospheric jet stream in the Pacific often takes an unusually wavy path... Continue Reading →

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