A short article appeared in Nature Climate Change compared Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance between satellite-derived observations and IPCC-AR5 model-based projections. Satellite-derived observations show that Antarctic ice-sheet has decreased since 1992 contributing around 0.27 mm-per-yr sea level rise. During the last decade (2007-2017), the contribution from Antarctica increased to around 0.55 mm-per-yr . This value is around 30 times greater than the AR5’s lower estimates, which predicted an average contribution of just 0.02 mm-per-yr. The rate of ice loss is also 80% higher than the AR5 central projections (0.36 mm-per-yr) as a consequence of the observed acceleration, and is now closest to the upper range (0.68 mm-per-yr). If Antarctic ice loss continues to track the upper range of the AR5 projections, it will contribute 151 mm, on average, to global sea levels by 2100.
Slater, T., & Shepherd, A. (2018). Antarctic ice losses tracking high. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0284-9.
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