ENSO forecasts extended to 18 months?

According to the recharge-discharge oscillator theory (Jin, 1997), the leading mode of tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content anomalies is a predictor (or a precursor) for the onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the interannual time scale. A new study published in Nature (Zhao et al., 2024) utilized multiple global sea surface... Continue Reading →

Atlantic Niña brewing: An implication for the 2024 hurricane season

Currently (as of June 22, 2024), a phenomenon known as Atlantic Niña is brewing in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As the Atlantic counterpart of La Niña in the Pacific, Atlantic Niña is characterized by the appearance of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. It is known to reduce rainfall and... Continue Reading →

Quad-State Tornado Outbreaks promoted by a long-lived PNA

On December 10, 2021, one of the most destructive winter tornado outbreaks developed in northeastern Arkansas. This tornado outbreak, later coined as the Quad-State Tornado Outbreaks by the news media, struck portions of the Ohio Valley, including Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, from December 10 to 11, 2021. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric... Continue Reading →

AMOC collapse is unlikely in the near future

A new study published in Science (Zhou and McManus, 2024) reconstructed the land ice melting (or discharge) rate during the intermittent events of ice melting in the last glacial period (i.e., Heinrich events). The study showed that the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet melting rate (since the 1980s) is comparable to that during weak-to-moderate strength Heinrich events. This... Continue Reading →

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